Mostly not. Since the beginning of May, the giants are between 37 and 44 years old, which makes sense because they Feel Like a team with seven games under .500 and away in the wild card chase, not a team with .500 on the sidelines. It’s been a long time since Joc Pederson has been working his way up to an all-star start and the Giants have apparently been on their way to challenging for the NL West title once again. They can’t pretend this list is one player away from the tournament.
And if there isn’t a single player on the roster, it would be a mistake to stick with Carlos Rodon.
Even when the giants were out of competition in the Oracle Park era, they were never eager to make a sale at a low price, and they won’t make a sale now. But Rodon is a special case – the specific kind of player that multiple teams desperately want and isn’t widely available. It also seems unlikely that he will be on the Giants squad next season. So while the Giants can hold on to Proudhon, give him another chance and collect a make-up draft (maybe after the second round), and replacing him with younger players who can help out longer makes more sense.
However, not all packages of possibilities are created equal. The giants shouldn’t be interested in a deal centered on young teens, several years away. They are not looking for a long-term rebuilding. They may not be competing next season, but they will definitely try.
So we’ll check out Keith Law’s recent update of his MLB Top 60 Predictor and see which odds and teams might be the best match for the Giants and Rodon. We will look for two things:
1. A team with a sense of urgency. This could be a team that hasn’t made it past the season since Barry Bonds hit 73 home runs (the Mariners), a team that has never won the World Championship (Padrese, Brewers), a team with a fan base that won’t. Settle for anything less than a championship (Yankees, Astros, Mets, uh, Dodgers)
2. Probability in minor uppercase, if not Triple A.
Here are some of the best fits.
Anthony Volpi, SS, Yankees (No. 9)
Yes, the Yankees have urgency and an impatient fan base with a World Series or Bust attitude. No, they don’t replace their top prospect—and top 10 potential baseball players—for a hired pitcher, even if that pitcher is one of the best in baseball.
But if the giants sweeten the deal, maybe with a cost-control savior shooting at 100mph, there might be something here. Volpe is an unrealistic target for Rodon alone, but he’s a five-tool player and is already in Double A, so the Giants must see if there’s any possible way to steal him by giving up anyone other than his name Logan Webb.
It doesn’t hurt to ask.
Edit: Welp. The Yankees acquired Frankie Montas five seconds before this was introduced. It was a beautiful dream while it lasted.
The Yankees did not trade Volpe, allowing them to trade him with the Giants for Rodon and Duvall, wow
Grant Brisbee August 1, 2022
Gabriel Moreno, C, Blue Jays (No. 5)
So, which of the top 10 odds are you still looking at now that it’s pretty clear the Yankees aren’t trading Volpi? This may be the best for everyone. Not only do Blue Jays have an urgent need for someone like Rodon, but they also desperately need help. The giants could add Camilo Duval to the package as a low-cost solution closer for several years, but John Pribbia and/or Dominic Leon.
Also working for the Giants is that Blue Jays appear as Hunter for the Undetermined Future, with 23-year-old Alejandro Kirk already an All-Star. It’s rare to see a prospect as attractive as Moreno trade, but it’s also rare to see a catcher like Kirk at all. It’s a stretch to hope anyone’s top 10 potential clients trade less than Juan Soto, but the more I flip this trade pairing in my mind, the more I can see Blue Jays talking about it.
Sal Frelick, CF, Brewers (No. 56)
This is more realistic, though. Frelick fits into a large potential client profile that is traditionally passed on for hire – a future rookie who may not be an All-Star of the future. He checks all the boxes with what the Giants might be looking for, from athleticism as well as defending in the center, to strong discipline and speed. His career high at home at any level (including college) is a seven, so there may be a lower ceiling than most expectations. But he must reach the disciplines quickly and when needed.
The only question is whether the Brewers would be willing to trade with a potential client like this, who could do cheaply for them for the long haul. Rodon will help them tremendously, but they operate with very little margin and don’t seem ready to trade to their best prospects. Heck, they traded closer for Prospects, championship drought be damned.
My guess is that while this would be one of the best suited for the Giants, it’s not particularly likely from the Brewers’ point of view.
Brett Patty, 3B/of, Mets (No. 38)
With Jacob deGrom back, do the Mets really need to add another start to a spin that already features Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker, all of whom are progressing somewhere between very good and great?
Yes maybe. I’m not sure which of these bowlers will get hurt before the season ends, but it’s not exactly a course filled with Warren Spahns and Randy Johnsons. In a best-case scenario, the Mets are rolling into postseason with Degrom/Scherzer/Rodon Troika at the top of the spin, which is absurd. In a less fun scenario, they have Rodon as an ace after injuring another person.
Patty was the 12th pick in 2019, hitting hard and average in the Double A, albeit with a fairly high strike rate. He’s only 22 years old, so this isn’t too concerning, and his defensive resilience should also appeal to the Giants.
Tylor Megill might also be of interest to a reload team and not a rebuild like the Giants, who will return from shoulder strain to be loyal, even if the Mets don’t gain another start.
The Giants and Mets are an unlikely pairing all over, but never discount the demands of a super-rich, still in the honeymoon phase of their ownership.
Matthew Liberator, LHSP, Cardinals (No. 52)
We’re starting to hit the grounds of the sensible, now. Much hinges on the Cardinal’s plans to go after Juan Soto, but they have 40 years at the helm of their rotation and a host of injury risks behind him. They’ll want another starting bowler, even if they get a Soto.
Can they get Soto without giving up the Liberator? No idea. They may decide Soto is out of reach either way, and may focus on winning in 2022 over everything else. Paul Goldschmidt is 35 years old and has a season of MVP caliber Currently. Adam Wainwright is 40 years old and still an ace Currently. Refusing to trade prospects appears to be a poor strategy for a team that is built like this. The biggest question remaining is whether the Cardinals are good enough to be involved in it all. They’re close to the giants in the wild card standings for a reason, not because they’ve been so dominant this season.
For the giants part, they would get a pitcher that could instantly replace Rodon in the spin. Having a player who can help out right away would take some sting out of the ace’s trading for his direct opponent in the wild card race. Not all sting. But some.
Von Grissom, 2B/SS, Braves (No. 59)
If Grissom is a guaranteed stopping point, he’s probably untouchable, but there are some questions about his ability to stay there. The Giants will not mind, because they will love a second baseman with extra communication skills and speed. It’s an exaggeration to think he’ll start next season in the majors – he was recently promoted to Double A – but it shouldn’t be that far.
Add a pitcher like Victor Vodnik, who could be in majors as soon as September, with Joc Pederson back in the Braves, and you have a scenario that makes more sense than anything mentioned so far.
Crown Bradley, RHSP, Rise (No. 36)
It doesn’t seem exceptionally likely that Rays will give up their best lease prospects, but Rays are also a bit of a fool (in a good way) and probably tired of their premature runs. Besides, they can simply grow another promotional opportunity in a Petri dish, as they won’t.
Bradley has everything the Giants aspire to – excellent stuff, drive and, uh, drive excellent stuff. Just Rodón might not be enough to put Bradley off, but the Rays are definitely creative enough to find another player to fit their roster. It might not have to be Duval, as with the Yankees deal, but perhaps John Pribbia or another loyalist might work.
About 13 different possibilities of Dodgers
It probably won’t happen for several reasons. First, it would be gross for the Dodgers to win the World Championship because the Giants replaced Rodon with them. Second, it would be gross for the Dodgers to win the World Championship because the Giants replaced Rodon with them. Third, it would be gross for the dodgers…
However, think about the big picture. If the Dodgers abandon some of the best prospects who are closest to the big business, will it hurt them in the Soto hunt? Probably. And you’d rather watch Rodon on the Dodgers in 2022 than watch Soto on the Dodgers in 2023, 2024 and certainly after that.
Look at some of the possibilities Dodgers can offer:
• Bobby Miller, the double whammy monster
• Gavin Stone, Double-A’s other hit monster
• Miguel Vargas, multiplayer Triple-A player currently in action
• Michael Bosch, a versatile Triple-A player who is currently rowing
All of these possibilities can help the Giants immediately, and it may be worth it in the short term to get them. It may also help prevent some long-term pain. I don’t know much about Bush, but he looks like a guy who could hit 14 wreckers against the Giants next year.
Juan Soto, Superstar, Nationals
I thought I was pretty smart thinking about this, except that John Morrosi was first.
– MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 1, 2022
Let’s say the natives are intrigued by the possibility of having fewer minors, like the Brewers’ Jackson Chorio. They love the man. I can’t get enough of it. But not only aren’t they willing to trade their top five prospects for Soto, they also don’t have the exciting major league chops the Nationals want.
In this scenario, the Giants trade Rodon with the Brewers for Chorio, then swap it out with Marco Luciano—and odds of them returning from the Blue Jays to Duval—for Soto.
it’s improbably. Maybe impossible.
But she’s just foolish enough to work.
Possibly impossible, though.
There are other deals that would make sense, and they don’t all have to have the top 60 potential clients on the law list. If you are looking for goals, this is a good place to start. The Giants want a young player who will appear soon, if not immediately, if they are to give up on the 2022 season. Here are some guys.
(Mostly, I’m glad I finished this one before the deal actually happened.)
(Photo by Sal Frelick: Stew Milne / Associated Press)