Delay in Ethereum futures hints at 30% “landing march” before merger

Ether (ETH) speculators love the positive spread between spot futures prices and ETH prices because the so-called contango reflects optimism about a higher rate in the future. But as of August 1, the Ethereum futures curve has slid in the opposite direction.

Quarterly Ethereum futures contract to default

On the daily chart, the quarterly Ethereum futures contract, which is due to expire in December 2022, has slipped backwards, which is the opposite case of deferral, where the futures price becomes lower than the spot price.

The spread between the spot rate and the Ethereum futures contract grew to -$8 on August 1.

ETH230-ETHUSD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

On the one hand, the current spot price of ETH above the year-end forecast appears to be a bearish sign. However, conditions surrounding the current negative spread between the Ether spot price and futures contracts suggest that traders may actually be bullish on Ethereum.

For example, Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 15% since futures rolled back in late June for the first time in a year.

ETH Can Rally On Hopes For ‘Airdrops’

Moreover, a potential split in the chain is likely to be bullish in the run-up to the September consolidation, according to some analysts.

Rochon Patel, former Vice President of Institutional Lending at Genesis Trading, noted that December Ether futures were flipped back due to Ethereum “fork possibilities,” which could prompt traders to buy spot ETH before the merger.

Meanwhile, Patel hinted that traders may offset immediate upside risk by taking bearish positions on December futures.

The statement came after Galwa Capital’s survey on the merger. In a July 28 Twitter poll, a crypto hedge fund asked its followers whether the merger will ever come to an end. Splitting the Ethereum chain into Proof of Work (PoW) ETH1 and Proof of Stake (PoS) ETH2.

Among the respondents, 33.1% said the upgrade would result in a hard fork, while 53.7% expected a smooth network transition.

A possible Ethereum chain split means that ETH holders will have an equal number of tokens in both chains. In other words, the airdrop Grant ETH holders hold the same amount of ETH1 tokens, a la Ethereum Classic (ETC) in 2016.

Flash Techniques ETH Price “Golden Cross”

Ether is now consolidating inside a major resistance band between $1,650 and $1,750 that acted as support during the May-June 2022 session.

Meanwhile, the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) exponential moving averages (EMA) formed a “golden cross”, indicating a temporary bullish outlook.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

A breakout originating from the resistance band between $1,650 and $1,750 could make ETH look towards $2,150 as the next upside target. This level was effective as resistance in May and June and support in January. It now coincides with the 200-day EMA (the blue wave) near $2,180, nearly 30% higher than the August 1 price.

Related Topics: Ethereum Merge: How Will PoS Transition Affect the ETH Ecosystem?

Conversely, a pullback from the resistance band could expose ETH towards the 20-day EMA (around $15,250) and the 50-day EMA ($1,500).

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