The value of Shohei Ohtani in free trade or agency is a complex problem

Athletics received four odds from the Braves this past season for Matt Olson, highlighted by Shea Langeliers, one of the best catchers in the unders.

The Reds received a package of four odds on Friday from the Mariners for Luis Castillo, including one of the game’s best players, Noelfi Martí.

So what should angels get if they swallow hard (100 times) and have already traded Shohei Ohtani?

Because Ohtani hits a lot like Olson. Ohtani started the weekend with a slash of .254/.349/.486, 21 homers and 134 OPS-plus in 413 plate appearances. The Olson was in .252/.339/.499 with 20 homers and 128 OPS-plus in 439 panel backs. They were the same in 2021, too.

Olson earns points for playing first base while Ohtani is the designated hitter. But Ohtani has 37 thefts and 10 hits since the start of last year while Olson has four thefts and zero three times.

Oh yeah, Ohtani also looks like a Castillo, just like a pitcher. On 17 starts in 2022, Ohtani had a 2.81 ERA (142 ERA-plus), slashed against .210/.256/.347 and was off 36.4 percent of speculators. On 14 starts, Castillo had a 2.86 ERA (160 ERA-plus), slashing against .201/.274/.319 and was taking out 25.8 percent of speculators. Castillo’s full-season record is much stronger and longer than Ohtani’s.

Shohei Ohtani is cutting .251/.345/.481 this season.
Shohei Ohtani is cutting .251/.345/.481 this season.
Kyodo News / Ciba USA

Basically, however, Otani can take off first on any course and finish second in any lineup – a one-man.

So what are you giving up for this person? What do the Angels find acceptable in exchange for the most outstanding player ever? Especially since Ohtani may also be the most marketable player in the game.

This is part of Otani’s dilemma. how to play it. How to pay him. How to trade it. He is a person who poses multiple mysteries. about angels. for the industry. He will probably one day be in free agency.

As The Post first reported Thursday, the Angels have begun to listen to commercial inquiries about Ohtani. This is logical. On May 15, the Angels were 24-13 years old and had the third-best record for the Majors, behind the Yankees and Astros. Since then (until Friday), the Angels have been in the Major League – worst 18-44. Anthony Rendon had lost this season. Mike Trout was recently diagnosed with a rare back condition that will threaten the rest of his season – and possibly more.

Ohtani hasn’t committed to staying with a franchise that would make the playoffs once (in 2014) in 13 seasons with no signs they have enough talent to change that anytime soon. Otani could be a free agent after next season.

Thus, he’s just the type of player (in theory) that this kind of franchise increases in the merchandising market thirsty for both his arm and his racket. But the fact that arm, left-wing strength, and fan appeal all rolled into one player complicates this – and that would be even for a well-run organization, a category the Angels don’t find themselves in.

Teams that have dealt with Angel sensation, general manager Perry Minassian, is polling the market to see what makes sense, but that won’t lead to owner Arte Moreno returning to trade in Ohtani. Moreno showed a penchant for buying shiny, expensive toys whether or not that made sense in the age curve. Think of one disaster after another, called Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Rendon. Will he really walk away from Ohtani’s brightest game? Will he really accept the fan rage that will accompany this choice?

Shohei Ohtani has a 2.81 ERA with 145 strikes and 23 walks in 99 1/3 runs so far this season.
Shohei Ohtani has a 2.81 ERA with 145 strikes and 23 walks in 99 1/3 runs so far this season.
Getty Images

Perhaps a team like Padres would be so willing to put so many great potential clients and young players to control in one deal that Moreno wouldn’t shy away. What would the Yankees do, say, for a copy of Babe Ruth’s second game? Or the Mets to unite Ohtani with the GM who brought him to Southern California, when Billy Ebler was the GM Angels?

But there is great doubt whether such an offer can be put together or accepted, especially when the Angels can find out the facts now and re-visit the trade either in the off-season or next July, before Ohtani’s free agency.

One executive has suggested that with Rendon and Trout in decline, Moreno will not want to part with the last marketable player, Ohtani, during this season. But the downfall of Rendon and Trout should actually spur a clever organization to relocate Ohtani.

Rendon didn’t come to the Angels with a reputation as a hardworking worker, and now his 31- and 32-year-old seasons are full of injuries and disappointments. Do you think that the next four years will bring a big recovery?

Sadly, this is the second year in a row full of injuries for Trout, who turns 31 next week. Trout played down an ominous report from Angels coach, Mike Frostad, that the player will have to manage his rare back condition not only this year, but for the rest of his career.

But keep in mind, if the Angels made Rendon available for nothing but another team’s willingness to endure the four years with the $152 million they owed from 2023-26, I don’t think any team would. I’m not sure any club will now assume the $283.6 million eight-year maturity for trout after this season. That’s $435.6 million in guaranteed dough left over for a highly questionable duo. It’s $73.45 million for each of the next four years, until the expiration of the Rendon Agreement.

So, even if Ohtani wants to stay, how do you start pricing in the right free agent value for a group of one who can hit like Matt Olson and throw like Luis Castillo? Is that 40 million dollars a year? fifty? more?

Even at $40 million, the Angels would put it out a year for just three players – two who already have huge question marks – that’s $113.45 million, before addressing the rest of the list that needed a lot of promotions for an owner who had shown no desire for it. Exceed the luxury tax.

Autani is a gambler. He really needed Tommy John’s surgery. If he needs it again, it will also result in him being removed as a hitter for at least a year and possibly making him just a hitter after that (but maybe a defensive player as well). Can Rendon’s Angels, Trout, and quite a few other assets take that gamble?

Which team can? Some will. But how do you price that? In the commercial market now, in the ultimate free agent market and when everything is related to such a marketable player as well.

This is all part of Otani’s dilemma. No great player has ever hit and gone down to such a degree and success simultaneously. It is unique in discovering how this is evaluated in each market.

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