Series preview: Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros

When you are in the middle of a tough period against some of the best teams in the league, and there is a smooth streak in between, it is very important to be able to take care of business to avoid falling into a deep downward spiral. That’s exactly what the Mariners did against Rangers this week. Following up on their disappointing sweep by the Astros with three straight wins was exactly what the team needed – and it helped Julio Rodriguez come back from a minor injury to his wrist to make a huge impact in two of those wins as well.

Quick overview

sailors Astros
sailors Astros
1 . game Thursday, July 28 | 5:10 pm
RHB Logan Gilbert RHP Jose Urquidy
46% 54%
2 . game Friday, July 29 | 5:10 pm
LHP Ruby Ray RHP Justin Verlander
39% 61%
3 . game Saturday, July 30 | 4:10 pm
RHP Chris Flexen LHP Framber Valdez
34% 66%
4 . game Sunday 31 July | 11:10 AM
RHP George Kirby RHP Jake Odorese
44% 56%

* Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Team overview

Summary Astros sailors edge
Summary Astros sailors edge
hit (wRC +) 112 (third in AL) 107 (5th in AL) Astros
Fielding (OAA) 22 (first) 7 (V) Astros
Rotation Initiation (FIP-) 93 (second) 109 (twelfth) Astros
Bullpen (FIP-) 81 (third) 97 (seventh) Astros

This seven-game wild ride will almost certainly be the toughest stretch the Mariners will face for the rest of the season. They’ll start with a four-game match against the Astros and then head to New York to face the Yankees for three. It’s a mid-season preview of some potential opponents in the elimination match should the Mariners go into post-season. If they fail, it won’t mark the end of their season – they’ve built enough cushion in the Wild Card race and their remaining schedule is pretty poor – but it’s a good test of how they face the best teams in AL.

In this week’s edition of You Can’t Predict Baseball, the Astros followed up their three-game sweep of the Mariners by sweeping them in three in Oakland. This was the first time the city of Houston had been overrun this year. Of the other four Serie A contenders, Team A now holds the best record against the stros’ team this year at 6-6. The Mariners now head to Houston to face the same three rookies who faced off in that series in Seattle last weekend plus Jake O’Dorrese.

Astros assortment

player Site bat Palestinian Authority baby wRC + BSR
player Site bat Palestinian Authority baby wRC + BSR
Jose Altove 2 b s 355 0.276 149 -3.0
Jeremy Peña SS s 315 0.307 119 1.3
Jordan Alvarez DH The 341 0.301 201 -1.0
Alex Bergman 3 b s 403 0.247 120 -1.8
Kyle Tucker RF The 375 0.249 129 1.8
Yuli Gouriel 1 b s three hundred fifty 0.255 94 -0.6
Chas McCormick LF s 247 0.267 111 -0.8
Jake Myers CF s 98 0.351 83 0.0
Martin Maldonado c s 251 0.210 66 -2.6

Not much has changed with the Astros’ lineup since they were in Seattle; It is one of the most consistent formations in the disciplines where almost everyone is supported in their roles. Base number one has been a problem for them this season. At 38 years old, Yuli Gouriel is having trouble pursuing his career in 2021. During the first three months of the season, he had only produced 89 wRC+ and was hitting only .226 after leading the AL Championship in that class last year. He did a little better in July, cutting .274/.329/.411 (114 wRC+).

Potential jugs

Updated stuff + explanation

Troy Taormina – USA TODAY Sports

RHP Jose Urquidy

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
100 2/3 18.2% 5.2% 11.6% 35.5% 3.93 4.50
spit Repetition velocity rotation rate things + whiff + BIP +
four stitches 54.1% 93.6 2195 123 84 87
cutter 7.9% 87.4 2508 95 124 113
change 15.7% 86.1 1975 102 89 135
Curveball 12.5% 77.6 2618 120 79 66
slider 9.8% 79.9 2591 85 72 97

From a previous preview of the series:

José Urquidy has always shown a lot of promise with a solid four-pitch arsenal, but he has struggled to put it all together in an entire season. Injuries surely played a part in this, but he also failed to maximize all of his strength for his offensive strike formation. During his debut season in 2019, both the curve ball and slider averaged high north of 40%. Neither field has reached those highs since, which is a big reason why his hit rate didn’t come close to matching the 24% he posted during the first season. He possesses tremendous control, so even if he wasn’t a King warrior, he would still stop them from executing free passes. This is critical to his success because he could also be vulnerable to Homer.

Urquidy finally disbanded the Mariners last weekend, having them run only once in six innings of action.


RHP Justin Verlander

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
116 1/3 26.1% 4.7% 9.7% 38.7% 1.86 3.09
spit Repetition velocity rotation rate things + whiff + BIP +
four stitches 50.3% 95.0 2417 154 77 110
Curveball 18.4% 78.8 2620 105 86 118
slider 29.2% 87.4 2460 137 101 127

From a previous preview of the series:

At 39, Justin Verlander is trying to do something almost unprecedented in major league history: to successfully come back from elbow surgery at a very advanced age. Started once in 2020 before undergoing Tommy John’s surgery; This was the second major injury of his career and he became the second oldest player to have ever undergone this operation. He has thrown over 200 runs in every season of his career except for two up to that point. During the sabbatical, the Astros signed him to a one-year, $25 million deal with a 2023 player option. The Astros clearly expect him to pick up right where he left off.

Verlander has appeared in all six series against the Mariners this season. He was completely in control against them on his last appearance, and only had problems in the seventh inning. He escaped after only being allowed one round to score.


LHP Framber Valdez

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
121 2/3 22.1% 8.8% 12.5% 66.4% 2.74 3.21
spit Repetition velocity rotation rate things + whiff + BIP +
four stitches 4.4% 94.0 2192 60
sinker 50.6% 94.0 2207 136 82 83
cutter 7.8% 83.7 2685 68 150 121
change 9.1% 89.1 1623 68 62 101
Curveball 28.1% 79.2 2843 123 135 131

From a previous preview of the series:

Framber Valdes made a significant adjustment to his approach in 2020, filling the strike area of ​​his pitches to counter his lackluster leadership. His walking rate dropped to 5.6% that year, though it hasn’t been low since then. He’s playing at higher ground than ever this year, although his walking rate is slightly worse than the league average. Instead, this means that the hitters put the ball into play at a higher rate, which is a good result for Valdes. More than two-thirds of the hits with the ball were placed out of his court on the ground, the highest ballpark average in the major tournaments and close to an all-time high. With an exceptional defensive presence behind him, all that poor contact with the ball led to a fantastic season for the 28-year-old.

Valdez strangled the sailors over six innings and only had problems in the seventh round as Verlander the day before.


RHP Jake Odorese

IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
IP K% BB% HR/FB% GB% era FIP
53 17.3% 6.8% 6.7% 31.1% 4.25 3.87
spit Repetition velocity rotation rate things + whiff + BIP +
four stitches 53.7% 92.1 2130 92 88 105
cutter 20.3% 87.8 2095 90 86 112
separator 11.6% 85.3 1363 60 53 65
Curveball 4.5% 72.0 2192
slider 9.8% 82.6 2072 85

From a previous preview of the series:

Jake Odorizzi struggled through a shaky path in the middle of his career. Probably starting with the Rays, he didn’t really get it all together in Tampa Bay. His big hit came in Minnesota in 2019; It recorded a high job strike rate of 27.1% that year and 4.3 fWAR. Tagged with a qualifying offer that was accepted out of the season, he returned to the Twins on a one-year deal. Unfortunately, injuries cost him most of the short 2020 season, making Minnesota just four entries. He signed a two-year contract with the Astros late last spring, but a few minor injuries once again prevented him from repeating the success he enjoyed in 2019. Career path. All of his minor offerings are inconsistent at best, making him overly dependent on the heater.

Odorizzi faced A marks in three consecutive starts prior to this series. He was dealing with a blister on his hand during his final start and Oakland took advantage of that, scoring six runs. He kept the Mariners goalless via 6.2 runs in May in his last start against Seattle.


The Big Picture:

Al Gharb

Team WL W% games behind last model
Team WL W% games behind last model
Astros 64-35 0.646 WWLL
sailors 54-45 0.545 10.0 LLWWW
Notice 43-54 0.443 20.0 LWLL
Angels 42-56 0.429 21.5 LWLWW
Athletics 38-63 0.376 27.0 WLWWW

Wild Card Racing

Team WL W% games behind last model
Team WL W% games behind last model
blue jays 54-44 0.551 +1.0 WWWWL
sailors 54-45 0.545 +0.5 LLWWW
rays 53-45 0.541 LLLLW
guardians 50-47 0.515 2.5 LLLWW
Orioles 49-49 0.500 4.0 WLWWL
white socks 49-49 0.500 4.0 LWWWL
red socks 49-50 0.495 4.5 LLWLL

The Mariners regained some ground in the Wild Card race after sweeping the Rangers, sitting just half a game behind the Blue Jays in the lead and three games ahead of the Guardians, the best non-separable team currently. As the trade deadline approaches after this weekend, there could be some big changes in next week’s qualifying races.

Toronto has split a two-game streak with the Cardinals at home this week and will host the Tigers for four games this weekend. The Oriole managed to take three out of four of the Rays this week and have now overtaken the Red Sox in the Middle East standings. It is impossible to know what they will do on the trade deadline. They’ll head to Cincinnati while Tampa Bay returns home to host the Guardians. Cleveland will wrap up their four-game series against the Red Sox this afternoon, then Boston will host the Brewers this weekend. The White Sox split their two-game series in Colorado earlier this week and will suddenly host the Red Hot A’s for three games starting tomorrow.


SB Nation has partnered with DraftKings to sponsor specific series previews this season. Below are the betting odds for this series.

DraftKings Series odds

Series results Prospect
Series results Prospect
The sailors win +320
drawn chain +160
Astros win +115

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