7 High-Risk Draft Picks (Fantasy Football 2022)

Training camp begins across the entire league this Tuesday, as NFL vets make their way onto the training field en masse. The most enthusiastic fantasy directors have already begun their initial drafts. Sleep is usually the biggest topic on everyone’s mind this time of year, but knowing which players to avoid in drafts is arguably even more important. Many of these high-risk athletes can simply be overestimated, but some have major injury fears, and others have major issues with their stance, such as falling into a worse attack during a rest period or setting a lower role.
So, who should fantasy directors be wary of when drafting in the first and middle rounds? Keep reading to see which players our featured experts are moving away from heading into the 2022 season. Remember that every suggestion is only that expert’s opinion and the players suggested it’s not everything. They are just players with a lot of risk given the cost of the draft.

Q1. Which RB player comes with the most risk in his current position with half the PPR ADP and which player(s) would you prefer to draft with the lowest ADP in his position?

Jafonte Williams (DEN): ADP consensus – RB9 | 16 overall
“Juggernaut Javonte Williams is drafted way too high as a top 10 rider for me in a recast because it’s hard to imagine him so vastly outperforming his RB17 finish in scoring half a point in PPR from last season with his expected workload split alongside Melvin Gordon “Let’s not forget that Gordon finished right behind Williams in the role of RB18 and played one game less. The veteran also spoke out recently claiming that he would refuse to lie in the fight to be the RB1 of the Broncos, and his play from last year – eighth in all of the PFF lunge score” 83.4) and forced missed tackles (45) – indicates he still has plenty left in the tank. I’d rather have Andre Swift, who was the RB9 fantasy player in terms of points per game and led all RB players to catch the ball before he got hit Last season. The Lions RB is a better role in the red than an Austin Eckler-like season in 2022.”
Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): ADP consensus – RB18 | 31 overall
“Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t looked at himself since 2019, and Zeke is probably gone forever. As Sharp Football’s Warren Sharp noted recently, the more-than-expected stream oles per relay over the past two seasons have been -0.01. Tony Pollard’s RYOE to backup each A carryover over the past two seasons: +0.52 Zeke’s legion of true believers will note that he finished RB6 last year with a 0.5 PPR score, but this was largely a “survivor bias”, with Zeke being one of only five RB players in the 20th First to play all 17 games. With Elliott now 27, a dramatic recovery in efficiency after two ineffective seasons seems unlikely. I ranked him behind James Conner, Bryce Hall, Travis Etienne and AJ Dillon, all of the worst ADPs.”
Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

DALPHIN COOK (MIN): ADP Compatibility – RB5 | Sixth in general
“Dalphin Cook. The permanent selection in the first round in the fantasy drafts carries some additional uncertainty into the season. New head coach Kevin O’Connell is expected to bring in more passes and 11 straights from his time with the Rams. Pairing this with the expected 10 Vikings minimum defense makes passive game scripts a common occurrence, limiting Cook’s high load load. Cook is also out at 2.6 career low-reception per game, and my RB model is showing him as the RB8 this season, making Henry, Harris, Mixon and Swift more attractive options. Mine Annual Team Predictions Make the Vikings drop by more than one point per game and also for fewer chances to score.”
David Zak (FantasyPros)

Antonio Gibson (WAS): ADP consensus – RB11 | 18 overall
Antonio Gibson was the RB10 last year, averaging 4.4 goals per game in the five games JD McKissic missed due to a concussion. However, he only averaged 2.7 goals per game when McKissic was healthy. Most importantly, Gibson had 52 red-zone touches and six goal-line dash attempts last year. With the addition of Brian Robinson and the return of Makisic, Gibson’s role in the red-zone and passing game will be limited. Best draft Cam Akers, Travis Etienne and AJ Dillon over Gibson” .
Mike Vanelli (Prime sports debate)

Q2. Which WR comes with the most risk in its current position half the PPR ADP and which player(s) would you prefer to draft with the lowest ADP in its position?

DK Metcalf (SEA): ADP Compatibility – WR15 | 44 overall
DK Metcalf’s situation has changed radically from what it was a year ago. Russell Wilson is the Broncos, and Gino Smith is in line to be a Seattle starter. Metcalf averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game in three games without Wilson last year. However, Metcalf averaged only 9.9 fantasy points per game in those competitions if you removed the coverage touchdown in the Week 7 game against the Saints. Furthermore, he averaged just 0.98 fantasy points per goal on his touchless goals in the three games without Wilson. With Smith or Drew Lock in the middle, there’s no reason to recruit Metcalf before Michael Bateman, DJ Moore, Mike Williams and Branden Cox.”
Mike Vanelli (Prime sports debate)

“The difference between having Jenno Smith/Drew Locke in the middle versus Russell Wilson can’t be overstated. It’s a horrible situation to be in and put in DK Metcalfe In a difficult place for fantasy football. Metcalf thrives on touchdown production (32 touchdowns during his first three seasons), but scoring may be a rare commodity in the 2022 Seahawks offensive. A Seattle player may only be able to get the highest level of assists by volume or injury, but that’s a bet you’re not Ready to do crafting in the middle rounds. I’d rather have Michael Bateman Jr., who got a promotion in QB this season with Matt Ryan and had a target share of 31% from weeks 13-18 last season.”
Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Trek Hill (MIA): ADP consensus – WR8 | 21 overall
“Tyreek Hill. Being a WR9, Hill has plenty of ways to fail to live up to the ADP. New Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel comes from the San Francisco heavyweight running philosophy that ranked 31st in passing attempts last season. There are also major question marks surrounding Tua Tagovailoa, which ranked 23rd in IQR deep ball (64 IQR) according to SIS – Depth of Hill’s Typical Perfect Track. The Chiefs didn’t have a first-class WR2, and that changes dramatically with Jaylen Waddle, who just broke the record for rookie receptions in a single season. I like multi-track players to the upside, not the other way around. I prefer Depo Samuel, Kenan Allen, and Michael Bateman as alternatives.”
David Zak (FantasyPros)

Michael Thomas (No): ADP Compatibility – WR25 | No. 68 in general
“It has to be Michael Thomas. The potential rewards he offers are tempting, but the risk is enormous. Thomas has only played seven games since 2019 with an ankle injury that was surgically repaired in June 2021, but not healed enough to enter the field last season. It is not necessarily that Putting Saints Thomas on the active roster/PUP is a big deal, days before training camp begins, but it’s also not reassuring.Thomas won’t be playing Drew Brees anymore, and faces target competition from first-round rookie Chris Olaf and veteran acquisition receiver Jarvis Landry. Dozens of WRs with Fewer ADPs I’m better than Thomas, and I’m a lot better off Rashod Bateman, Gabriel Davis and Darnell Mooney.”
Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)


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Thanks to the experts for sharing their tips! To see more of them, be sure to follow each Twitter analyst (click their names above) and visit their respective sites.


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