Why Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur transfer target carries so much risk to Everton star’s price

Richarlison It looks like Everton is on the career path of a superstar winger. The Brazilian started his football career in his homeland in Fluminense before moving to it Watford At the age of twenty he brought him to the European game. After just one season there, he climbed the English ladder to Everton. Now, four seasons later, he is entering the climax of his career and some of the biggest names in the Premier League are calling him. Tottenham Hotspur have expressed an interest Even Chelsea kick the tires in a possible blow to Richarlison.

Everton, understandably, want great money for their striker, and are said to be asking $60m for him. Is this a price some of the best clubs in the world have to pay? lets take alook.

What makes Richarlison attractive?

What makes Richarlison a somewhat unique player is that despite being a striker, his scoring and assisting passes aren’t necessarily what makes him stand out. Over his four years with Everton, Richarlison averaged 0.35 goals per 90 minutes, which ranks him 29th among players who have played 4,000 minutes or more during that four-season period. It’s cuddled up Chris Wood (now from Newcastle) at 28 and Ashley Barnes who went down Burnley in thirty. His expected goal totals (xG) tell the same story. There he is 39 with 0.31 xG per 90. His scoring is much better than his total passes. He averaged 0.10 assists per 90, which is not among the top 100 assists. And it’s not as if his teammates are constantly exaggerating the easy opportunities he creates for them. His passes per 90 is actually higher than 0.08 expected passes (xA) The STATS performance model predicts his passes are worth.

When you start looking at all the unrecorded things, Richarlison really starts to shine though. During those same four seasons, Richarlison finished fifth among all attackers with 1.69 tackles per 90, and he wins those tackles as well. His intervention success rate of 44.7% is the second highest among attackers. His ball recovery is also strong with 4.92 ranking seventh in the Premier League’s strikers over the past four years.

Then there’s Richarlison’s above-average ability to run with the ball at his feet. He doesn’t hold the ball much, and is the product of playing in some very mediocre aspects. He’s only attempted 27.09 loads in every game for the past four years, and he’s not even in the top 30 in the Premier League. However, when he does, he averages six yards per carry, which is the 17th best in the league.

Put it all together and you get the forward scoring average, but the winger is a fierce defender and is good at carrying the ball forward with his feet, even if his passes are somewhat unnoticeable. He managed it all while playing with a midfield team that, at best, nearly went relegated last season. So, it’s easy to see why there’s some interest.

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What are the cons of Richarlison?

Although Richarlison’s profiles are, on the whole, as a player who could, at the very least, play a role on a great team, there are still some major reasons for concern. While his profile looks good on average, the direction of his trajectory may indicate otherwise. In theory, Richarlison should have peaked as his numbers peaked as he entered the best years of his career. Practically speaking, even considering the fact that he played for fewer minutes last season due to wear and tear, he experienced his worst season at Everton in several important areas.

His 1.43 tackles per 90 were the lowest in his time with Everton, as was his 4.06 ball recovery. Those defensive numbers dropped despite the fact that Everton only had 39.5% of the ball, the lowest possession rate they had so far in the season he was there. In a season where he’s had more opportunity to defend, he hasn’t done that much.

It becomes even more alarming when you look at the data surrounding its payloads. His average 90-minute carry distance, previously never below 170 yards, dropped to just under 123. They both had the fewest transfers per 90 minutes of their time at Everton at 22.52 and the lowest average carry yards per attempt at 5.4. So carry the ball less and for shorter distances each time.

In theory, all these changes can be explained by a change of center. with a striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin Injured, Richarlison played a lot at the top of the squad as a real striker and a lot less as a second attacker coming from the wing. But pure scoring has always been the most mediocre part of Richarlison’s game, and if playing as a striker hurts his other abilities, that doesn’t improve his scoring. Ditch the penalties and you’ll see a player whose goals were just 0.25 per 90 (the second lowest of Everton’s four seasons), xG’s per 90 at 0.27 per 90 (tied for the lowest) and shots at 2.46 (again the lowest). The only bright spot for Richarlison was that his passing rate was by far his highest in his time at Everton at 0.18 per 90, but even there the stats show he mostly benefited from his finishing touch by his teammates as His xA total was 0.03 again. The lowest level of his career with Everton.

Should teams fear Richarlison’s downtime?

Sometimes a bad season is just a bad season. It’s absolutely true that Richarlison’s 2021/22 season was relatively disastrous, but a lot of good players had bad years. And there were a lot of extenuating circumstances. Everton’s struggles last season were no secret, and the team went from a strong midfield to a dangerous relegation battle. Management was a mess. Rafa Benitez began the season as coach of the team after Carlo Ancelotti’s departure to Real Madrid and played a frustrating style of conservative football that was not particularly successful. Frank Lampard He eventually took the job, and while he steered the team to safety, he also didn’t solve many problems. It’s no surprise to see a player struggle in that environment.

On top of that, Everton had to deal with a serious injury crisis. Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin played just 1,300 minutes, and similarly suffered his worst season in the past four years while on the pitch. Richarlison has gone from being part of a young dynamic duo to doing a lot of flying solo, in a position that doesn’t fit his skills. showed. Add to that the fact that the young Brazilian has basically had no off-season basis and you can totally formulate an explanation for his relegation season. Richarlison has played in both the Copa America and the Olympics for Brazil, as well as two World Cup qualifiers. Playing 15 matches during the summer of 2021, he started in all but two matches. Then the 2021-22 season began.

Finally, Richarlison is not an exceptional striker. At his best, he is a very good defensive winger and also gives you the scoring of an average striker along with plenty of forward carrying ability. This is a very valuable type of player. He could easily have been the type of player the club would reasonably pay the potential superstar money for a pre-season. But his recent struggles have made things less clear. Richarlison could be back to where he was before after summer vacation. Put him back on the wing and functional side with his legs under him and you will see that the gamble pays off.

However, it’s also possible that last season’s revelation that Richarlison relies on a non-stop engine may never be the same. Rather than up his game in his mid-twenties, he may struggle to get back the production of his younger years — the potential product of an engine that now produces permanently lower output. Often, players recover from a stressful overkill, but sometimes they never get that advantage back.

It is certainly possible to imagine a price point at which buying a Richarlison would make sense for some of the biggest teams in the world. But the price Everton is currently asking is basically money that can’t be missed. Well, we’ve seen Richarlison get it wrong. That happened last season. teams like Chelsea Spurs could certainly use the Everton star, but unless the Toffees cut their asking price, the best teams in the world will likely find better value for their dollars elsewhere. And if it turns out that last season was, in fact, just a passing pic, and Richarlison is back to shape the 2022-23 campaign, the teams with the cash could come back again next summer.

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