Some thoughts on bowlers from Tuesday’s games:
Sorted by era
work as usual: Nothing practical
- Carlos Rodon, Pablo Lopez, Zach Wheeler, John Gray, Luis Castillo (good enough against LAD), Triston Mackenzie (standard edition, bad start, not worried), Jordan Montgomery, Tyler Anderson, Michael Washa (7 Ks at 6 IP) , too!), Shane Buzz (only 4.7 IP, but it was good enough), Ross Stripling, Mike Clevenger, Sonny Gray (some regression expected), Adam Wainwright (it was bad, but it wasn’t panicking)
Outstanding gems: Notable personalities that deserve some extra attention
- Shohei Ohtani – Baseball’s best player (and he’s nowhere near) has shown his pure edge over the past two days with 8 RBIs on Tuesday and then 13 Ks on Wednesday. I just in no way see him as the undisputed best baseball player. It definitely made it a question of whether you should use it in DH or P this year. He’s the 16th-ranked hitter and 15th-ranked starting shooter on the auction calculator.
- Charlie Morton – Here’s Morton! 7 consecutive stones (2 ER, 6 H, 20 Ks at 14 IP) and four consecutive stones with a run predominance (40 Ks and 40% K% on 25 Jun IP) had their ERA back below 5.00 for the first time since May 20. I still feel he has a good chance of being Luis Castillo of the year (7.22 PM to May; 2.73 from June onwards). Even during the April and May struggles, he showed glimpses all the time, usually with two runs at each start, but he couldn’t avoid the explosive one (or twice, at some starts). Get two hot steps will test how Back He makes trips to PHI and CIN. I’m definitely starting it, but not without a tinge of nervousness.
- George Kirby – Kirby gave NFBCers a hot 9 ER at 10 IP right after his shot, but they barely remember that little hiccup now that he bounced with a 2.17 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at 29 IP with 27 Ks and 2 Ws on the five starts. He’ll probably be in the biz as usual for the next few starts unless he’s had a major anomalous start in either end. He’s got two exciting moves at home against BAL and OAK next week.
- Keegan Thompson – Is Thompson ready to hit everyone again? After rolling out 1.38 ERA / 0.92 WHIP at 13 IP with 3 wins, he is starting to gain attention in fantasy leagues. He did a good enough job on the first start after a lot of people picked him up (5.3 IP/3 ER with a win), but the looming 2 step in BAL/in NYY had plans for those pedigrees. Obviously everyone was really scared of a New York start, but he started in 81% of the main events that week and delivered 24.32 afternoon hotspots at just 3.7 IP. The Yankees had a start on Sunday (0.7 IP/3 ER) and he was promptly cut in 22 of 47 main events that night just in time to bounce back by stones in a row, earning 12 IPs with a 0.75 ERA and WHIP including a 16k. It was heavily re-listed this week at the start of PIT, but now comes the saw that faces the CIN/BOS 2 step. I’m too scared of BOS to even take the start of CIN. be cerfull.
fit enough: Mostly bis as usual but with some comments
- Luis Garcia – Garcia has a major problem the third time with the .978 OPS in that 58 PA after the .603 first time and .582 seconds through. He’s been having a good season and I’m not too worried, but he might start to see more rounds around the 5 IP mark unless he shows he can handle that third time more consistently. Even the 0.832 mark last year would be a huge improvement.
- Eric Lauer – 5 ER is usually worthless, but he went 6 IP and had 5 Ks. HR was the biggest problem during his last three starts, 8 in 17.3 IP after 8 in his first 56.7 IP. Two of the trips were in Homer’s sanctuaries at WAS and CIN as well. He’s clearly slipped to lower levels and that’s probably where he’ll live for the rest of the season which is a good thing.
losers: The worst of the day fantasy-related weapons
- Lucas Giolito – Giulito has taken a bigger hit this year and his penchant for running at home has only been exacerbated. It had 2.1 HR/9 and 20% HR/FB, yielding 5.40 ERA at 63.3 IP. 3.70 SIERA would be more encouraging if you thought the HR issue was unlucky attributable to the significant regression. It could definitely drop from 2.1, but I’m not sure if it drops below 1.5 until we see his driving improve. He still misses the bat (27% K, 13% SwStr), but squashes whenever he misses.
- Tarik Skubal – There may be some panic in three consecutive slays (9.88 ERA/2.04 WHIP), but there is some regression in HR in play (1 HR at each start) as well as a pair of strong opponents within the trio (TOR, BOS). His ERA season is now 3.63 ERA. I’m still encouraged by the 1.13 WHIP, 21% K-BB, and 0.7 HR/9. I’m not even close to sitting it anywhere, even with a trip to SF on tap.
- Carlos Carrasco – Going to HOU is always tough. Really I’m just including it to say I’m not worried about this.
- Paul Blackburn – The first real failure of the year. Four of the seven came into a nightmare in the fifth in which he didn’t even score a knockout, opening 1B-HR-1B-2B before he was relieved, then Domingo Tapia allowed another two to score on Blackburn’s ledger. We know regression was coming, but I thought it would come last time in BOS instead of home v. SEA. He’s getting NYY at SEA next week and he’s a truly difficult decision. I sat it down for a HOU/BOS 2 step 2 weeks ago and I tend to do the same here. We play for home money with Blackburn, so I don’t feel compelled to push him in places where I don’t feel comfortable. Climbing isn’t something I’m worried about missing out on. It’s not like he’s a strike player or anything, so I highly doubt we’re missing something like 6 without goals with 10 Ks or something. I often say that if you can’t start with two steps, they’re on the chopping block as pieces. It’s not hard and fast where you have to cut it, but you have to at least think about it. I have the flexibility on the list to sit down with Blackburn and I still have it, but I really wouldn’t blame anyone who didn’t want to start it and decided to cut it out because of it.
broadcast on Thursday
A look at some of the arms available to stream this weekend.
- Zach Evelyn at SD on Saturday – It’ll be easier to deal with Padres’ lineup that certainly doesn’t have Machado, and while Eflin does suffer from hiccups, this is one of the best widely available weapons you can find for a weekend (20% Y!, 12% ESPN).
- Mitch Keeler at TB on Friday Rays’ offense was brutal this month, ranking 27th in the WRC+ against the right along with a 26% K average.
- Graham Ashcraft in San Francisco on Friday – A scary match, but I like the heavy (56%) globes rate the power diver (97mph) generates and think there are hints of upside (10% SwStr has him in L4).
- Zack Davis vs DET on Saturday – 2.81 ERA / 0.97 WHIP placed on the L5 with 28 Ks at 32 IP.
- Anthony Desclavani vs.. CIN on Sunday Tough comeback from IL, but I’ll catch the ball at home against the Reds if I’m answering the wire.
- Alex Faido at ARI on Saturday – Not sweating a rough BOS walk and would definitely be open to picking an ARI here.
- Ryan Feltner at MIN on Sunday – I like 19% K-BB, but he didn’t take advantage of a picnic at MIA earlier this week, so no guarantees here just because he’s out of Coors.
- Rich Hill at CLE on Sunday – Hail Mary kind of starts on a Sunday because you never know if you get 2 IP or 6 IP. It shouldn’t kill your numbers and it can definitely be a blessing.